Sunday, May 31, 2009

JNJ - the current gold standard for large cap stocks

JNJ is my current gold-standard stock/company. Why buy something else when you can get ~9% earnings/EV, consistent 25-30% ROE, 17-20% net margin, almost no net debt, great brand, great moat, great management, some growth, high expected return on multiple metrics? Any alternative investment needs to beat at least some of the qualities above to be considered at all.

For divvie players, it even has 3.6% yield. ;)

JNJ does not offer multibagger potential. However, it offers potential 20% return per year. It is part of my "safe" large cap holdings that also include PEP, KO, UL, WYE, NKE, MSFT, CSCO, and BRK. None of them offer multibagger potential coming off current levels.

JNJ has not offered high return in last ten years. However, ten years ago JNJ sales per share were 1/2 current, FCF and earnings per share were 1/3 current:

http://www.gurufocus.com/financials.php?symbol=jnj

So it is at least 50% cheaper than it was 10 years ago.

When Buffett approach is preferable to Graham

I recently read through "The Cashflow Quadrant" of the "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" series. The book itself is not great, but it has a reminder of why Buffett approach to investing is preferable to Graham. Quote: "Are you a true business owner? ... Can you leave your business for a year or more and return to find it more profitable and running better than when you left it?".

This is what distinguishes Graham investing that is in the S quadrant (self employed, trading your time for money) to Buffett investing that is in B/I quadrants (business owner/investor, trading someone else's time for money). With Graham investing you have to follow the market. Not as much as traders do, but still you cannot leave for year or two and expect that things will work out. With Buffett investing, like he says, even if market is closed for 5 years, it does not matter. The businesses owned will grow and prosper to better results through this time.