My top (>2%) positions in no particular
order: JPM, MGDDY, LMCA, WDC, MHNC, SPND, BKLN, CF, FRFHF, GLW, AXS, RE,
MKL, DRAGF, BRKB.
In: FRFHF - stock runup, AXS - runup, RE - runup
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~18%
Sectors (kinda):
Insurance: 14%, Malone/media: 9%, Banks: 9%, Cars and parts: 5%, Oil 7%, Agri 3%, Tech 8%
New positions: HYH, PCP, FRMO, APA, GTE
Positions increased: PGN, BAC, LMCA, VRSN, LBRDA, LBTYA, MBNC, BH, STRZA
Positions reduced: DE, MDT, STX, MSFT
Positions eliminated: EVC, RYAM, ASBRF, INGR, BASFY, HY, FCX, JOY
Flip-flop:
After
most year of boring market, finally things are happening. :) Said the
speculator while falling outside the window of the 50th floor. ;)
If
market was overpriced before, now it is at least splitting into two
parts: the still overpriced part and the energy companies. :) As oil
continues to plummet there are already a number of reasonable companies
trading below 2009 prices. This is what I call attractive. I am likely
too early as I was in 2008, but I only have 7% portfolio in oil. By the
time oil is at $35 - let's hope it gets there - I expect to have at
least 20+% in oil cos. I doubt it will get there though.
I did some portfolio cleanup. Sold EVC
- too tough to value for me, I prefer Malone cos; RYAM - no trust in
CEO who is likely responsible for RYN's overreporting; ASBRF -
expensive; INGR - low conviction and overcapacity risk; BASFY -
expensive and Russian oil risk; HY - not cheap enough; FCX - I prefer
oil-only companies; JOY - possibly cheap but low conviction as oil
drops.
Reduced positions in DE
- I expect a drop in 2015 based on bad results, so far market ignores
this, but I am not sure it will ignore it all year, MDT - expensive, STX
- not cheap enough, MSFT - donated appreciated shares to charity.
On the buying side, there are couple themes:
Bought more Malone companies: LMCA, LBRDA, LBTYA, STRZA (after the huge drop on Friday).
Bought oil companies: PGN, APA, GTE
After reviewing Buffett lieutenant portfolios, added a bit more VRSN and bought small position in PCP
Bought a bit more MBNC.
Bought BH as the sum-of-parts investment - and to vote against Mr. Big at the annual meeting. :)
Bought exploratory position in HYH - not cheap I think though.
Bought some FRMO for education.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Portfolio overview - October 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: JPM, MGDDY, MHNC, SPND, LMCA, WDC, BKLN, CF, GLW, MKL, DRAGF, BRKB.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~19%
New positions: EVC, DVDCY
Positions increased: SPND, PGN, TPRE, DISCA
Positions reduced: INGR, MBNC, DE
Positions eliminated: AITPF, BK, TDF, CMI, EMC
Flip-flop:
With market volatility, my portfolio also saw some activity. I can't say the activity was very positive though. Most of the purchases and sales continue to be small sum thrashing around. All this while trying to find some interesting place to put the money in or a position to remove the money from.
Exploratory new positions in EVC and DVDCY - neither stock is cheap.
Bought more SPND and PGN as oil continues to flounder. Bought some TPRE as valuation is somewhat attractive. Bought some DISCA on continued decline.
Sold remaining AITPF on valuation. Sold CMI on valuation. Sold TDF after holding for a long time and losing my belief in this fund and its manager. Sold BK - my lower conviction bank holding. Sold EMC - my low conviction tech holding.
Sold some INGR and DE - low conviction, continued headwinds. Sold some MBNC - possibly mistake on this microcap.
Overall, there are positions in my portfolio that I like, but there's a lot of stuff that I am unsure about. I might do some house cleaning soon. We'll see.
The market is high and there are very few attractive stocks. I continue to hold quite a bit of cash and fixed income and continue to underperform SP500.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~19%
New positions: EVC, DVDCY
Positions increased: SPND, PGN, TPRE, DISCA
Positions reduced: INGR, MBNC, DE
Positions eliminated: AITPF, BK, TDF, CMI, EMC
Flip-flop:
With market volatility, my portfolio also saw some activity. I can't say the activity was very positive though. Most of the purchases and sales continue to be small sum thrashing around. All this while trying to find some interesting place to put the money in or a position to remove the money from.
Exploratory new positions in EVC and DVDCY - neither stock is cheap.
Bought more SPND and PGN as oil continues to flounder. Bought some TPRE as valuation is somewhat attractive. Bought some DISCA on continued decline.
Sold remaining AITPF on valuation. Sold CMI on valuation. Sold TDF after holding for a long time and losing my belief in this fund and its manager. Sold BK - my lower conviction bank holding. Sold EMC - my low conviction tech holding.
Sold some INGR and DE - low conviction, continued headwinds. Sold some MBNC - possibly mistake on this microcap.
Overall, there are positions in my portfolio that I like, but there's a lot of stuff that I am unsure about. I might do some house cleaning soon. We'll see.
The market is high and there are very few attractive stocks. I continue to hold quite a bit of cash and fixed income and continue to underperform SP500.
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Portfolio overview - September 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: MGDDY, JPM, MHNC, GLW, DRAGF, BKLN, LMCA, CF, BRKB, WDC, SPND, MKL.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~16%
New positions: MBNC, RYAM, 7399:JP, TESB:BE, PGN
Positions increased: DE
Positions reduced: GLW, STX, AITPF, BASFY
Positions eliminated: VASTN:NL, DNOW
Flip-flop:
Though the market did not do much this month, I bought and sold more than in previous months. It remains to be seen if the activity was worthwhile.
I sold DNOW distribution from NOV. It seemed to be expensive and not attractive.
Sold Euro REIT VASTN:NL - not impressed with results for the last couple years and did not see bright future either.
Continued reduction of GLW - not clear to me that it's worth current valuation, no clear positive outlook except perhaps auto-industry option.
Sold some STX - WDC+STX is a bit large position and I decided to reduce.
Sold some AITPF on valuation
Sold some BASFY on valuation and Russia involvement.
Bought more DE as the stock drops/goes nowhere. Company is shedding employees and predicting bad results. I might be early, but I plan to buy more.
Established initial positions in MBNC, RYAM, 7399:JP, TESB:BE, PGN
MBNC was mentioned on SI Value Investing thread. I don't believe it's very cheap, but it's interesting.
RYAM is a spinoff that's also not cheap, but rather interesting for future prospects.7399:JP - Japan industrial co., not great results, no moat, but cheap. Might be value trap. Discussed on Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax.
TESB:BE - Belgian chemical company, now run by turnaround owner/CEO. Discussed on Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax. Not great current results.
PGN - another spinoff discussed on SI Value Investing board. Risky offshore drilling small cap.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~16%
New positions: MBNC, RYAM, 7399:JP, TESB:BE, PGN
Positions increased: DE
Positions reduced: GLW, STX, AITPF, BASFY
Positions eliminated: VASTN:NL, DNOW
Flip-flop:
Though the market did not do much this month, I bought and sold more than in previous months. It remains to be seen if the activity was worthwhile.
I sold DNOW distribution from NOV. It seemed to be expensive and not attractive.
Sold Euro REIT VASTN:NL - not impressed with results for the last couple years and did not see bright future either.
Continued reduction of GLW - not clear to me that it's worth current valuation, no clear positive outlook except perhaps auto-industry option.
Sold some STX - WDC+STX is a bit large position and I decided to reduce.
Sold some AITPF on valuation
Sold some BASFY on valuation and Russia involvement.
Bought more DE as the stock drops/goes nowhere. Company is shedding employees and predicting bad results. I might be early, but I plan to buy more.
Established initial positions in MBNC, RYAM, 7399:JP, TESB:BE, PGN
MBNC was mentioned on SI Value Investing thread. I don't believe it's very cheap, but it's interesting.
RYAM is a spinoff that's also not cheap, but rather interesting for future prospects.7399:JP - Japan industrial co., not great results, no moat, but cheap. Might be value trap. Discussed on Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax.
TESB:BE - Belgian chemical company, now run by turnaround owner/CEO. Discussed on Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax. Not great current results.
PGN - another spinoff discussed on SI Value Investing board. Risky offshore drilling small cap.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
Portfolio overview - August 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: MGDDY, JPM, MHNC, GLW, DRAGF, BKLN, LMCA, CF, BRKB, WDC, SPND, MKL.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~17%
New positions: WLP, BBBY, BUD
Positions increased:
Positions reduced: GLW, JOY, MSFT
Positions eliminated: GFN
Flip-flop: WTW
Continuation of rather boring months.
I bought some WTW and then sold it later after more analysis. My thinking about it hasn't changed really.
I bought small positions in BUD (not cheap), WLP (somewhat cheap) and BBBY (somewhat cheap).
I sold some GLW, JOY and MSFT. Not sure if I should have. None of them are hugely overpriced.
Sold GFN position. I decided that I do not have a clear picture on company's future. It might continue to prosper, but currently I am not sure about it.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~17%
New positions: WLP, BBBY, BUD
Positions increased:
Positions reduced: GLW, JOY, MSFT
Positions eliminated: GFN
Flip-flop: WTW
Continuation of rather boring months.
I bought some WTW and then sold it later after more analysis. My thinking about it hasn't changed really.
I bought small positions in BUD (not cheap), WLP (somewhat cheap) and BBBY (somewhat cheap).
I sold some GLW, JOY and MSFT. Not sure if I should have. None of them are hugely overpriced.
Sold GFN position. I decided that I do not have a clear picture on company's future. It might continue to prosper, but currently I am not sure about it.
Monday, July 7, 2014
Portfolio overview - July 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: MGDDY, JPM, MHNC, GLW, DRAGF, BKLN, LMCA, CF, BRKB, WDC, SPND, MKL.
In: SPND, MKL - price increases
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~16%
New positions: EMC
Positions increased: DE
Positions reduced: AMNF, GLW, BASFY, MHNC
Positions eliminated: CWH-E
Flip-flop:
Another boring month. Nothing attractive to buy and not much to sell.
In fixed income, I sold CWH-E and reduced MHNC positions as they went over par and yield-to-possible-call diminished.
I sold some of AMNF, GLW, BASFY somewhat richly valued positions.
I bought a small exploratory position in EMC.
I added a bit to DE position.
Two stocks ran up to join 2% positions with couple more on the edge. I might have to shift to 2.5% reporting if the number of 2%ers becomes large.
In: SPND, MKL - price increases
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~16%
New positions: EMC
Positions increased: DE
Positions reduced: AMNF, GLW, BASFY, MHNC
Positions eliminated: CWH-E
Flip-flop:
Another boring month. Nothing attractive to buy and not much to sell.
In fixed income, I sold CWH-E and reduced MHNC positions as they went over par and yield-to-possible-call diminished.
I sold some of AMNF, GLW, BASFY somewhat richly valued positions.
I bought a small exploratory position in EMC.
I added a bit to DE position.
Two stocks ran up to join 2% positions with couple more on the edge. I might have to shift to 2.5% reporting if the number of 2%ers becomes large.
Friday, June 6, 2014
Portfolio overview - June 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: MGDDY, JPM, MHNC, GLW, DRAGF, BKLN, LMCA, CF, BRKB, WDC.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~18%
Cash: ~16%
New positions: LVNTA, DISH, DNB
Positions increased: LMCA, DE, SMTUF, LBTYK, VRSN, AGXKF
Positions reduced: PFHO,
Positions eliminated: DTV
Flip-flop:
Another ho hum month.
Upon T's offer to buy DTV, I decided to exit the position and buy some DISH. Neither company is very cheap. I am not very attracted to T and I am not sure I can analyze all the possibilities with DTV sale going through or failing, so I decided not to hold DTV.
I established a tracking position in LVNTA. I bought some DNB, which may hold some moat. It is not very cheap though.
I bought some more LMCA, DE, SMTUF, LBTYK, VRSN, AGXKF. Only SMTUF can be called cheap and yet good quality company. AGXKF is a risky increase in small position that has lost ~80%. The remainder of purchases are good quality companies that are not cheap with various degrees.
I sold some more of PFHO based on valuation.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~18%
Cash: ~16%
New positions: LVNTA, DISH, DNB
Positions increased: LMCA, DE, SMTUF, LBTYK, VRSN, AGXKF
Positions reduced: PFHO,
Positions eliminated: DTV
Flip-flop:
Another ho hum month.
Upon T's offer to buy DTV, I decided to exit the position and buy some DISH. Neither company is very cheap. I am not very attracted to T and I am not sure I can analyze all the possibilities with DTV sale going through or failing, so I decided not to hold DTV.
I established a tracking position in LVNTA. I bought some DNB, which may hold some moat. It is not very cheap though.
I bought some more LMCA, DE, SMTUF, LBTYK, VRSN, AGXKF. Only SMTUF can be called cheap and yet good quality company. AGXKF is a risky increase in small position that has lost ~80%. The remainder of purchases are good quality companies that are not cheap with various degrees.
I sold some more of PFHO based on valuation.
Monday, May 26, 2014
Ken Fisher "The Ten Roads to Riches"
I gobbled the book in two days. It's not a bad book though 9 out of 10 roads are
aimed at young people. It would be a great book to give to 15-25 year
olds (or around that range).
Ken is annoying in some places due to his hatred of government, taxes, politicians - fully "Forbes"ian attitude - which is also why I don't read "Forbes". Apart from that it's a nice light read with some great suggestions and advice for the roads mentioned. As I said couple thumbs up for young adults. :)
There is smattering of useful info in first 9 roads for non-youngsters, but not much to be worthwhile the time.
Road/Chapter 10 is "The Road More Traveled" and is a nice 24 page summary of the "get a good job, be frugal, save and invest smartly" road. Not much new there, but he manages to pack tons of stuff - well, the whole life - into 20 pages. It's a good concise reminder material for people who travel that road, which should be pretty much everyone. It's not revolutionary: pick good job area, progress with job, be frugal, calculate what you need to save, save, invest in stocks-index funds, done. Well, I packed it into sentence, but he gives a bit more info. :)
So overall: For young adults: two thumbs up; For older readers: read first nine chapters for gossip and fun mostly, read chapter 10 to remind of the road we should be traveling and maybe get one-two insights on it.
Ken is annoying in some places due to his hatred of government, taxes, politicians - fully "Forbes"ian attitude - which is also why I don't read "Forbes". Apart from that it's a nice light read with some great suggestions and advice for the roads mentioned. As I said couple thumbs up for young adults. :)
There is smattering of useful info in first 9 roads for non-youngsters, but not much to be worthwhile the time.
Road/Chapter 10 is "The Road More Traveled" and is a nice 24 page summary of the "get a good job, be frugal, save and invest smartly" road. Not much new there, but he manages to pack tons of stuff - well, the whole life - into 20 pages. It's a good concise reminder material for people who travel that road, which should be pretty much everyone. It's not revolutionary: pick good job area, progress with job, be frugal, calculate what you need to save, save, invest in stocks-index funds, done. Well, I packed it into sentence, but he gives a bit more info. :)
So overall: For young adults: two thumbs up; For older readers: read first nine chapters for gossip and fun mostly, read chapter 10 to remind of the road we should be traveling and maybe get one-two insights on it.
Thursday, May 8, 2014
Portfolio overview - May 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: MGDDY, JPM, MHNC, GLW, DRAGF, BKLN, LMCA, CF, BRKB, WDC.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~18%
Cash: ~16%
New positions:
Positions increased: LMCA, LBTYK, TPRE, MKL, GS, VRSN, STRZA
Positions reduced: PFHO, HY,
Positions eliminated: CAM.L, INTC, TSCDY
Flip-flop:
Not a very exciting month.
I sold CAM.L position. The stock is cheap on P/B basis, but I am not sure they can monetize their B.
Sold INTC. Stock is not cheap based on latest results and I am not sure they will show better results in the future.
Sold TSCDY. I am not sure about their future success either.
Reduced positions in PFHO and HY. Both stocks are highly valued.
I continued to buy Malone companies (LMCA, LBTYK and STRZA). Not cheap. I'll post some thoughts separately.
Bought some TPRE, MKL. Insurance and reinsurance companies seem to be heading into tough times. I am pretty confident that MKL will do OK even if they have couple rough quarters or years. With TPRE and GLRE, I am not so sure. Reading Buffett's biography, it seems that even "good" insurance companies periodically get killed.
Bought some GS. Another one which seems cheap based on current book and results, but might have issues if we go into recession or market downdraft.
VRSN. Not very cheap, but I think it might be a good buy here. It seems that they should continue doing OKish, although I can't say I know all the ins and outs of their business.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~18%
Cash: ~16%
New positions:
Positions increased: LMCA, LBTYK, TPRE, MKL, GS, VRSN, STRZA
Positions reduced: PFHO, HY,
Positions eliminated: CAM.L, INTC, TSCDY
Flip-flop:
Not a very exciting month.
I sold CAM.L position. The stock is cheap on P/B basis, but I am not sure they can monetize their B.
Sold INTC. Stock is not cheap based on latest results and I am not sure they will show better results in the future.
Sold TSCDY. I am not sure about their future success either.
Reduced positions in PFHO and HY. Both stocks are highly valued.
I continued to buy Malone companies (LMCA, LBTYK and STRZA). Not cheap. I'll post some thoughts separately.
Bought some TPRE, MKL. Insurance and reinsurance companies seem to be heading into tough times. I am pretty confident that MKL will do OK even if they have couple rough quarters or years. With TPRE and GLRE, I am not so sure. Reading Buffett's biography, it seems that even "good" insurance companies periodically get killed.
Bought some GS. Another one which seems cheap based on current book and results, but might have issues if we go into recession or market downdraft.
VRSN. Not very cheap, but I think it might be a good buy here. It seems that they should continue doing OKish, although I can't say I know all the ins and outs of their business.
Monday, April 7, 2014
Portfolio overview - April 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: MGDDY, JPM, MHNC, GLW, DRAGF, BKLN, LMCA, CF, BRKB, WDC.
In: LMCA - bought more
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~15%
New positions: SMTUF, AGIIL, VRSN
Positions increased: LMCA, DISCA, BAMXY, BAC, GS
Positions reduced: TSCDY, BASFY, PFHO
Positions eliminated: EVK.DE, TWC, GAME
Flip-flop:
Not much valuation change in the market, which is somewhat surprising considering volatile international situation. It seems that bulls still somewhat rule the US stocks at least.
In fixed income, I bought some AGIIL - not very cheap, but nothing is.
In stocks, I am still a bit of net buyer. Part of it is additional money coming in although my cash/fixed income percentages dropped a tiny bit.
I sold EVK.DE - not great results and I did not have high conviction about the company. I sold TWC - decided that putting more money into LMCA/DISCA makes more sense. I sold the last bit of GAME - decided that tracking it is not very interesting anymore.
I reduced position in TSCDY based on low conviction, BASFY - valuation and Russian involvement. PFHO is still great performer, but the stock is expensive and I continue to sell as it runs up.
I increased positions in BAMXY, BAC, GS - still reasonable valuations. BAMXY also partially replaces EVK/BASFY German exposure.
I opened two new positions. I liked valuation of Spekulatius' SMTUF. I bought some VRSN - reasonable valuation (not cheap!) and Buffett lieutenant exposure.
In: LMCA - bought more
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~15%
New positions: SMTUF, AGIIL, VRSN
Positions increased: LMCA, DISCA, BAMXY, BAC, GS
Positions reduced: TSCDY, BASFY, PFHO
Positions eliminated: EVK.DE, TWC, GAME
Flip-flop:
Not much valuation change in the market, which is somewhat surprising considering volatile international situation. It seems that bulls still somewhat rule the US stocks at least.
In fixed income, I bought some AGIIL - not very cheap, but nothing is.
In stocks, I am still a bit of net buyer. Part of it is additional money coming in although my cash/fixed income percentages dropped a tiny bit.
I sold EVK.DE - not great results and I did not have high conviction about the company. I sold TWC - decided that putting more money into LMCA/DISCA makes more sense. I sold the last bit of GAME - decided that tracking it is not very interesting anymore.
I reduced position in TSCDY based on low conviction, BASFY - valuation and Russian involvement. PFHO is still great performer, but the stock is expensive and I continue to sell as it runs up.
I increased positions in BAMXY, BAC, GS - still reasonable valuations. BAMXY also partially replaces EVK/BASFY German exposure.
I opened two new positions. I liked valuation of Spekulatius' SMTUF. I bought some VRSN - reasonable valuation (not cheap!) and Buffett lieutenant exposure.
Monday, March 3, 2014
Portfolio overview - March 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: MGDDY, JPM, MHNC, GLW, DRAGF, BKLN, CF, BRKB, WDC.
In: BRKB - added
Out:
Fixed income: ~17%
Cash: ~17%
New positions: LINTA, LBTYA, STRZA, DISCA
Positions increased: LMCA, MHNC, MDT, BRKB, TPRE. GLRE
Positions reduced: GLW, CF
Positions eliminated: SIRI, CYOU, MHNB, AFSI-A, UVIC
Flip-flop:
Without much of a correction, market continues the rise, which means that there's not much to buy cheaply.
On the income side, I have simplified my holdings by selling MHNB and AFSI-A as they went up and adding a bit of MHNC.
On the stocks side, I have increased my positions in Malone companies, by buying LINTA, LBTYA, STRZA, DISCA and adding to LMCA. I sold SIRI position, since I did not see much benefit to holding it rather than LMCA. These are not really value investing positions.
I added to MDT - not cheap, but looks like a long-term resilient company.
I also added to investor run insurance companies: BRKB, TPRE, GLRE. All of them have run up a bit, but they don't look expensive if the respective portfolio managers can continue to perform. Buffett has underperformed S&P500 last year, but promised overperformance over business cycle in the future.
I sold some CF and GLW. The positions were large and I reduced them as slow conviction.
Closed CYOU and UVIC positions. UVIC ran up while their results remained so so. I decided that holding CYOU is no longer a worthwhile idea though the stock remains cheap based on past results. It is not clear what results will the company produce going forward though. Both of these positions were sold at a profit, but not outstanding one.
In: BRKB - added
Out:
Fixed income: ~17%
Cash: ~17%
New positions: LINTA, LBTYA, STRZA, DISCA
Positions increased: LMCA, MHNC, MDT, BRKB, TPRE. GLRE
Positions reduced: GLW, CF
Positions eliminated: SIRI, CYOU, MHNB, AFSI-A, UVIC
Flip-flop:
Without much of a correction, market continues the rise, which means that there's not much to buy cheaply.
On the income side, I have simplified my holdings by selling MHNB and AFSI-A as they went up and adding a bit of MHNC.
On the stocks side, I have increased my positions in Malone companies, by buying LINTA, LBTYA, STRZA, DISCA and adding to LMCA. I sold SIRI position, since I did not see much benefit to holding it rather than LMCA. These are not really value investing positions.
I added to MDT - not cheap, but looks like a long-term resilient company.
I also added to investor run insurance companies: BRKB, TPRE, GLRE. All of them have run up a bit, but they don't look expensive if the respective portfolio managers can continue to perform. Buffett has underperformed S&P500 last year, but promised overperformance over business cycle in the future.
I sold some CF and GLW. The positions were large and I reduced them as slow conviction.
Closed CYOU and UVIC positions. UVIC ran up while their results remained so so. I decided that holding CYOU is no longer a worthwhile idea though the stock remains cheap based on past results. It is not clear what results will the company produce going forward though. Both of these positions were sold at a profit, but not outstanding one.
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