Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Portfolio overview - November 2014

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: JPM, MGDDY, LMCA, WDC, MHNC, SPND, BKLN, CF, FRFHF, GLW, AXS, RE, MKL, DRAGF, BRKB.
In: FRFHF - stock runup, AXS - runup, RE - runup

Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~18%

Sectors (kinda):
Insurance: 14%, Malone/media: 9%, Banks: 9%, Cars and parts: 5%, Oil 7%, Agri 3%, Tech 8%

New positions: HYH, PCP, FRMO, APA, GTE
Positions increased: PGN, BAC, LMCA, VRSN, LBRDA, LBTYA, MBNC, BH, STRZA
Positions reduced: DE, MDT, STX, MSFT
Positions eliminated: EVC, RYAM, ASBRF, INGR, BASFY, HY, FCX, JOY

After most year of boring market, finally things are happening. :) Said the speculator while falling outside the window of the 50th floor. ;)

If market was overpriced before, now it is at least splitting into two parts: the still overpriced part and the energy companies. :) As oil continues to plummet there are already a number of reasonable companies trading below 2009 prices. This is what I call attractive. I am likely too early as I was in 2008, but I only have 7% portfolio in oil. By the time oil is at $35 - let's hope it gets there - I expect to have at least 20+% in oil cos. I doubt it will get there though.

I did some portfolio cleanup. Sold
EVC - too tough to value for me, I prefer Malone cos; RYAM - no trust in CEO who is likely responsible for RYN's overreporting; ASBRF - expensive; INGR - low conviction and overcapacity risk; BASFY - expensive and Russian oil risk; HY - not cheap enough; FCX - I prefer oil-only companies; JOY - possibly cheap but low conviction as oil drops.
Reduced positions in
DE - I expect a drop in 2015 based on bad results, so far market ignores this, but I am not sure it will ignore it all year, MDT - expensive, STX - not cheap enough, MSFT - donated appreciated shares to charity.

On the buying side, there are couple themes:
Bought more Malone companies: LMCA, LBRDA, LBTYA, STRZA (after the huge drop on Friday).
Bought oil companies: PGN, APA, GTE
After reviewing Buffett lieutenant portfolios, added a bit more VRSN and bought small position in PCP
Bought a bit more MBNC.
Bought BH as the sum-of-parts investment - and to vote against Mr. Big at the annual meeting. :)
Bought exploratory position in HYH - not cheap I think though.
Bought some FRMO for education.

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