Sunday, October 18, 2020

Portfolio update - 2020 September/October

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, PSHZF, AAPL, EXXRF, GOOG,
In:
Out:
 
Fixed income: 10%
Cash: 13%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 7%, Stock funds: 9%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 0%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 30%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 4%

New positions: GSAHWS, IPOBWS, IPOCWS, TRTNPRC, TRTNPRD, ROP, PSTH, GNLPRA, GNLPRB, WFCPRL, INNPRD
Positions increased: ADSK, ANGI, AMZN, IAC, PSHZF, BKNG, YY
Positions reduced: PROSY, AAPL, TWTR, INNPRE
Positions eliminated: TCEHY
Flip-flop: INS

On the fixed income side, I bought a number of preferred shares TRTNPRC, TRTNPRD, GNLPRA, GNLPRB, WFCPRL, INNPRD. I sold some INNPRE as price rose.

In the SPAC area, I bought small positions in a number of warrants GSAHWS, IPOBWS, IPOCWS and some PSTH.

I bought a tiny tracking position in ROP.

I added to ADSK, ANGI, AMZN, IAC, PSHZF, BKNG, YY at (somewhat) attractive prices.

I sold TCEHY for a mix of valuation and political reasons. I reduced PROSY and TWTR to raise cash and because of weak conviction in their future business and stock returns. I also sold a bit of AAPL because of the oversized position and valuation concerns, although on further analysis, I think that AAPL may provide 6-9% annual return in coming years. 

In general, opportunities are few, most attractive (growing and moaty) businesses trade at high valuations, there are a number of risks for both economy and stock market. Probably I should hold even more cash and fixed income than I do now.

Sunday, August 23, 2020

Portfolio update - 2020 July/August

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, PSHZF, AAPL, EXXRF, GOOG,
In:
Out:
 
Fixed income: 9%
Cash: 15%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 7%, Stock funds: 8%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 0%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 30%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 4%

New positions: ADBE, HMLPPRA, INNPRE, ADSK, SPAQWS, CBOE, INTC, FICO, ANGI, MNRPRC
Positions increased: VMW, PSHZF, AMZN, IAC, BACPRL, MLSPF
Positions reduced: MTCH, TRRSF, AAPL, TCEHY
Positions eliminated: AMSSY, GPOR, GPOR bond, NKLAW
Flip-flop:

In fixed income, sold GPOR bond (and associated tracking stock position) on Q2 results and "going concern" opinion.
Bought a number of preferreds: HMLPPRA, INNPRE, MNRPRC, BACPRL

Sold NKLAW remainder on upcoming warrant conversion.
Sold AMSSY - it was a low conviction position and I decided that I like cash/other positions more.
Reduced MTCH, TRRSF, AAPL, TCEHY on valuation at prices lower than they are currently. All of these are good/great companies, so I possibly should have held.

Added to VMW, PSHZF, IAC, MLSPF at OK to attractive prices.
Added to AMZN at somewhat attractive price considering current results and continued growth.
Bought tracking positions in ADBE, ADSK, FICO.
Bought some INTC, CBOE, and ANGI at OK to attractive prices. All of these are somewhat low conviction positions.
Bought tiny completely speculative position in SPAQWS.

Market and stock prices are still (very) high and I probably should hold even more cash and fixed income.

Monday, July 6, 2020

Portfolio update - 2020 May/June

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, PSHZF, AAPL, EXXRF, GOOG,
In:
Out:

 
Fixed income: 10%
Cash: 18%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 11%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 7%, Stock funds: 7%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 1%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 28%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 4%

New positions: AMSSY
Positions increased: CVS, VMW, FB, PSHZF

Positions reduced: STNE, NKLAW, AAPL, VVNTWS, JPM
Positions eliminated: IPGP, OXY bond, CMCSA, LVMUY, MKL

Flip-flop: LSXMA

As market rose, I have reduced or sold a number of positions.

Sold OXY bond on price rise.
Sold IPGP, MKL, CMCSA, LVMUY on unclear future returns and to raise cash.
Reduced STNE expecting bad results from the business. So far the stock has been rising from my sale price.
Reduced NKLAW and VVNTWS on huge runups.
Reduced AAPL position on share rise and less attractive valuation.
Reduced JPM on unclear effect of near-zero interest rates on bank profits. The stock is cheap though.

Bought AMSSY, CVS, VMW, FB, PSHZF at somewhat attractive valuations.

Sunday, May 17, 2020

Portfolio update - April/May 2020

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, PSHZF, AAPL, EXXRF, GOOG,
In:
Out: JPM - sold, LSXMA - sold

 
Fixed income: 12%
Cash: 16%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK, MKL): 12%, Malone/media: 4%, Banks/financials: 9%, Stock funds: 7%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 2%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 27%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 4%

New positions: OXY bond, TCEHY
Positions increased: FB, AKREX

Positions reduced: JPM, IPGP, MAR, PCTY, NICE, AAPL, OSSIF, SHOP
Positions eliminated: SAVE, BITA, CFRUY, FMCKP, GGG, SFTBY, AXP, BX, LSXMA, KKR, TECD, PAR, NPSNY

Flip-flop: STNE, AER, KNOP

The market and a lot of stocks ran up since March. I mostly added to positions in late March and early April. Then mostly sold positions in late April and May. I don't think the economy will recover quickly. A lot of stocks are expensive, the market seems to be very optimistic, so I have raised cash.

I sold merger arbitrage positions in BITA, TECD. 
Sold airline related stocks: SAVE, bought and then sold AER as it ran up.
Sold a lot of positions that I thought to be expensive, low conviction, or impacted by pandemic: CFRUY, FMCKP, GGG, SFTBY, AXP, BX, LSXMA, KKR, PAR.
Also reduced positions for similar reasons: JPM, IPGP, MAR, PCTY, NICE, AAPL, OSSIF, SHOP
Some of these are good companies and I might buy back the positions, especially if prices drop (significantly).

Added to STNE position at lows and then sold partial position as the price ran up.

I decide to switch from NPSNY to TCEHY. Still holding PROSY.

Added to FB and AKREX for long term holding.

Bought initial position of OXY bond at low prices. It has run up since.

 


Thursday, March 26, 2020

Portfolio update - February/March 2020

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, PSHZF, LSXMA, EXXRF, AAPL, JPM, GOOG,
In: PSHZF - bought
Out: TRRSF - sold, MKL - sold

 
Fixed income: 12%
Cash: 6%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK, MKL): 14%, Malone/media: 5%, Banks/financials: 13%, Stock funds: 6%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 1%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 27%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 5%

New positions: GPOR bond, GPOR, BCSVX, SAVE, VTIQW, BITA, PSHZF
Positions increased: EXPE, V, BKNG, BRKB, IAC, GOOG, JPM, ICE, FB, AKREX, DFS, KKR, PROSY, MLSPF, CVS,

Positions reduced: BOMN, CHEK, TRRSF, MKL,
Positions eliminated: LBTYK, ANGI, EFFP:SE, FNMAG, BIDU, FWONA

Flip-flop: WEIN, BREW, TECD, OSSIF

Covid pandemic has brought a huge drop in stock prices, which led to a lot of activity in my portfolio. Interestingly enough the cash and fixed income percentages have not changed much so far, although considering that the portfolio size has dropped, this means I have invested cash/bonds into equities.

I have sold lower conviction holdings LBTYK, BIDU, FWONA and tiny positions in EFFP:SE and FNMAG. I sold ANGI and deployed cash into IAC.
I sold most of BOMN which I did not consider very attractive holding. I sold large parts of TRRSF and MKL - these are good companies, but also likely not the best investments going forward. I sold part of tiny CHEK position.

With merger arbitrage spreads increasing hugely, I bought and sold WEIN, BREW, TECD. I bought some BITA although the probability of its sale going through is likely lower.

I bought and sold some OSSIF as share price fluctuated during the drop.

In oil space, I bought some GPOR bonds and very few GPOR shares.No guarantee that GPOR won't  file.

I bought new position in fund BCSVX and added to AKREX. I bought a large position in PSHZF, which is trading well below NAV with Bill Ackman navigating the crisis well so far with timely hedges. PSHZF is currently unhedged though and future results may be volatile.

I bought a position in SAVE - an airline that might survive and produce good earnings if it does.

I bought a tiny tracking position in very speculative VTIQW.

Finally I added to a lot of stocks that I have held before and now were selling much cheaper:
EXPE, V, BKNG, BRKB, GOOG, JPM, ICE, FB, DFS, KKR, PROSY, MLSPF, CVS. Some of these are more attractive than others and the sizes of purchases differ a lot.

Keep washing your hands and stay healthy


Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Portfolio overview - January 2020

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, LSXMA, EXXRF, AAPL, JPM, TRRSF, GOOG, MKL,
In: TRRSF - price increase
Out:

 
Fixed income: 11%
Cash: 6%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK, MKL): 17%, Malone/media: 7%, Banks/financials: 12%, Stock funds: 3%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 0%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 27%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 6%

New positions: VVNTWS, BITA, DFS, XROLF, MLSPF, NICE
Positions increased: JPM

Positions reduced: FMCKP, SPCEWS
Positions eliminated: PRDGF


Rolled more cash into MINT and BSV.


Finally gave up and sold PRDGF position. It is likely that equity holders will be wiped out. 

Sold some FMCKP as the future return is unclear.

Sold some SPCEWS as stock and warrants have been shooting up.

Added some JPM and bought initial position in DFS. 

Bought a small position in BITA merger arbitrage.

Bought tracking positions in XROLF, MLSPF and NICE.

Bought some VVNTWS warrants that promptly ran up.

Monday, January 20, 2020

Portfolio overview - December 2019

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, LSXMA, EXXRF, AAPL, JPM, GOOG, MKL,
In:
Out:
FRFHF, DISCK - sold

Fixed income: 10%
Cash: 9%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK, MKL): 17%, Malone/media: 7%, Banks/financials: 11%, Stock funds: 3%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 0%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 26%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 6%

New positions: GGG, AKREX, FSPHX, FIGFX, GISOX
Positions increased: CMCSA, ACHN, BKNG, GOOG, ICE

Positions reduced: SPCEWS
Positions eliminated: FRFHF, DISCK, CLKFF, AMCX

Bought a bunch of short-term fixed income ETFs: MINT, FLOT, BSV.

Sold
FRFHF, DISCK, CLKFF, AMCX - unsure about future prospects and returns.
Sold a part of tiny position in SPCEWS as the warrants ran up hugely.
Bought tracking position in GGG.
Added to CMCSA, BKNG, GOOG, ICE although stocks are not cheap.
Added to ACHN during stock weakness.

Bought positions in AKREX, FSPHX, FIGFX, GISOX as a partial move to investing via mutual funds.