Portfolio update - 2025 December 31

 

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: GOOGL, META, BRKB, NVDA, AAPL, IVSBF, AMZN, UBER
In: IVSBF, UBER
Out:

Fixed income: 1%
Cash: 10%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 9%, Media: 0%, Banks/financials: 5%, Stock funds: 1%, Industrial: 1%, Consumer: 4%, Medical/pharma: 3%, Tech: 49%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 3%

My returns for time periods ending December 31, 2025: 

Stock accounts: 2025: 18%, 2y: 24.76%, 3y: 30.69%, 5y: 13.10%, 10y: 14.46% annualized. 

For comparison SP500 returns: 2025: 17.69%, 2y: ?%, 3y: 22.84%, 5y: 14.30%, 10y: 14.67% annualized.

IWF returns: 2025: 18.34%, 2y: ?%, 3y: 30.93%, 5y: 15.13%, 10y: 17.92% annualized.

Portfolio update - 2024 December 31

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: META, GOOGL, BRKB, NVDA, AAPL, AMZN
In:
Out:

Fixed income: 1%
Cash: 10%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 11%, Media: 0%, Banks/financials: 5%, Stock funds: 2%, Industrial: 1%, Consumer: 4%, Medical/pharma: 2%, Tech: 48%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 1%

New positions: IRTC, RIVN, GMS, GH, LULU, AUR, AVGO, ZI, TMO, BATRK, MCHP, BSKY, LNW, LGRDY, ATKR, ASPN, CVNA, GENI, APTV, VIK, PSTG, ENPH, INTC
Positions increased: MRNA, PYPL, CELH, RNG, THRY, EVVTY, KARO, BILL, DUOL, CRWD, UTHR, DASH, PCTY, ABNB, TEAM, PINS, LRCX, SNOW, SE, SHLS, SYM, IWF, CPNG, DOCN, FOUR, MNDY, ZS, GMAB, PGNY, LVO, MELI, ANET, AMAT
Positions reduced: EXPE
Positions eliminated: MU, CSL, TDOC, GISOX, AKREX, COHR, BABA, ZM, HLFFF, OSSIF, CNNE
Flip-flop: RILY/RILYK/RILYN/RILYT/RILYP, BMBL, ETSY, META, U, EMKR, ETHE/FETH

New positions mostly tracking.

Added to positions at somewhat attractive valuations.

EXPE reduced on runup

OSSIF sold on buyout. Others sold on low conviction and poor reported results.

RILY/RILYK/RILYN/RILYT/RILYP - flip flop on runups and drops, still risk of BK.

BMBL - bought more then sold the whole position.

ETSY - bought some, then sold the whole position

META - sold some to reduce position with small buys at lower prices

U - bought some, then sold the whole position

EMKR - bought some on buyout offer, sold on run up.

Flipped ETHE to FETH

My returns for time periods ending December 31, 2024: 

Stock accounts: 2024: 31.83%, 2y: 37.84%, 3y: 10.49%, 5y: 14.65%, 10y: 11.93% annualized. 

All investment accounts including 401(k)s, ESPPs, etc (some unreliable numbers): 2024: 28.21%, 2y annualized: 30.43%, 3y: 8.56%, 5y: 12.71%, 10y: 10.68% annualized.

For comparison SP500 returns (without dividends and dividend reinvestments): 2024: 24% (25% with dividends?), 2y: 24%, 3y: 7.6%, 5y: 12.6%, 10y: 11.6% annualized.

IWF returns (without dividends and dividend reinvestments): 2024: 34.7%, 2y: 38%, 3y: 10.6%, 5y: 17.7%, 10y: 15.9% annualized.

 

Portfolio update - 2024 June 22

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: META, GOOGL, BRKB, NVDA, AAPL, AMZN
In:
Out:

Fixed income: 1%
Cash: 10%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Media: 1%, Banks/financials: 5%, Stock funds: 3%, Industrial: 1%, Consumer: 4%, Medical/pharma: 2%, Tech: 46%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 2%

New positions: SYM, DE, IAS, MU, QLYS, SHLS, NTOIY, XPEL, TKO
Positions increased: FTNT, RNG, BILL, PYPL, EXPE, MNDY, ABNB, ANET, DASH, YELP, GMAB, PANW, UTHR, LYV, MELI, GOOGL, CPNG, PGNY, BMBL, ZS, HLFFF, DOCU, BLDEW, DLO, EVVTY, CSL, NOW, TEAM, DDOG, CELH, DUOL, SE, DOCS, SNOW, PCTY, VEEV, CRM, ZM,
Positions reduced: MRNA,
Positions eliminated: FRCJL, FRCCL, PAGS, SSNC, VCSA, LEAT, IT, BOC, SWAV,
Flip-flop: RILY/RILYK/RILYN/RILYT/RILYP, KYYWY, META, GBTC/FBTC, THRY

RILY/RILYK/RILYN/RILYT/RILYP - long odyssey of buys, sells and swaps. Ultimately RILY position went down, combination of RILYK/RILYN/RILYT/RILYP went up. 

KYYWY - bought and then sold on merger announcement.

META - reduced position on size, though added a bit at dip.

Swapped GBTC to FBTC.

Reduced THRY though bought some on latest results.

Sold SWAV on merger announcement.

Sold PAGS, SSNC, VCSA, LEAT, IT, BOC on low conviction and/or quarterly results.

Added stocks to companies at somewhat attractive prices.

New positions - initial buys.

Portfolio update - 2023 December 31

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, GOOGL, META, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA
In:
Out: RILY (price drop)

Fixed income: 1%
Cash: 11%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 6%, Stock funds: 3%, Industrial: 0%, Consumer: 4%, Medical/pharma: 3%, Tech: 44%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 2%

New positions: DHR, BYDDY,
Positions increased: ZS, DOCU,
Positions reduced: PAGS, GBTC, EXPE, ETHE, CNNE
Positions eliminated: WMICX, SSTWS, SPLK
Flip-flop: RILY

My returns for time periods ending December 31, 2023: 

Stock accounts: 2023: 45%, 2y: 0.6%, 3y: 5.6%, 5y: 13.7%, 10y: 9.4% annualized. 

All investment accounts including 401(k)s, ESPPs, etc (some unreliable numbers): 2023: 34.7%, 2y: 0.17%, 3y: 4.9%, 5y: 13%, 10y: 8.4% annualized.

For comparison SP500 returns (without dividends and dividend reinvestments): 2023: 24%, 2y: 0%, 3y: 8%, 5y: 14%, 10y: 10% annualized.

Sold SPLK as merger spread narrowed. Reduced GBTC, EXPE, ETHE on run up. Reduced PAGS, CNNE as low confidence positions.

Bought initial positions in DHR and BYDDY. Added to ZS and DOCU at attractive prices.

Traded around RILY position on drop and bounce.

Do most stocks underperform T-bills?

Bessembinder study on whether stocks outperform one month T-bills is pretty widely known. A lot of people summarize its results in attention grabbing one liners. Even the official ASU page link is called "do-stocks-outperform-treasury-bills".

In fact, the one liners are quite misleading. The authors on ASU page carefully choose phrases so that the claims would be technically correct. But these careful word choices hide the actual picture, which is not as sensational. Let's dig in.

The study measures wealth creation from company going public to either the end of the study (2016, 2019, 2022 - I take spreadsheet from 2019, since it was used in the paper) or to company ceasing to exist as a public company. There are no adjustments for inflation or for economy growth. This methodology strongly biases the positive wealth creation to companies that are around in 2019 as can be seen in the top of wealth creation table. Companies that have ceased to exist usually don't have positive value creation, except for the few that get acquired. Since there are only about 4300 public companies in US in 2019, it is not surprising that "All of the wealth creation can be attributed to the thousand top-performing stocks". That would be about 23% of companies existing in 2019. Even assuming that half of the wealth creation came from companies that no longer exist in 2019 (this is unlikely based on the study's construction), 11.5% of companies existing in 2019 created a large percentage of wealth. This is much higher percentage than the quoted 1-2%.

Furthermore, the study measures absolute value creation and not annualized percentage return, which leads study to claim that 1-2% of companies create over 50% of value. This is true, but only for the absolute size of the value created. It does not mean that investing into the other 98% of companies leads to losses or inadequate returns. The study itself shows that in most 3-year periods over 50% of companies create positive wealth, i.e. their returns outperform treasury bills. The study does not show how many of these 50% of companies have high annualized percentage returns. For example, if a tiny company TinyCo has absolute wealth creation of $1M in 3 years, while a huge company HugeCo has absolute wealth creation of $1B in the same time, the study considers that HugeCo created 99.9% of wealth, even if TinyCo returned 10x in terms of appreciation, while HugeCo returned only 20%. As I have mentioned, this effect is exaggerated by the fact that in 2019 HugeCos are closing to $ trillion valuations, while first $10B company appeared only in 1955, so wealth created by most companies before 1955 would be about hundred times smaller than wealth created around 2019 by HugeCos.

Bessembinder methodology assumes buying at IPO and never selling. For investors, who do not hold forever, it is quite possible to have high returns in companies that later underperform or go bust (see Blockbuster).

Some of the numbers in the Bessembinder spreadsheet look suspicious. Apparently American Airlines Group had positive wealth creation from 1939 to 2016 (though negative 1939 to 2019). In 2013 AMR corporation was in bankruptcy and merged with US Airways Group. US Airways is the company that has history going back to 1939, so it is the company considered in the wealth creation 1939-2016. But it also went through bankruptcies in 2002 and 2004. It is possible that the positive wealth creation 1939-2016 comes from dividends or other corporate actions but it is suspicious. It might be worthwhile to dig into the "positive wealth creation" of American Airlines Group from 1939 to 2016 and into the quality of Bessembinder's data.

Portfolio update - 2023 November 23

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, GOOGL, META, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, RILY
In:  AMZN, NVDA (added positions from separate accounts)
Out:

Fixed income: 1%
Cash: 11%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 6%, Stock funds: 3%, Industrial: 0%, Consumer: 4%, Medical/pharma: 3%, Tech: 43%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 2%

New positions: UTHR, IT, AMAT, DLO, ANET, GMAB, GNL-A, GNL-B, PGNY, EVVTY, BNTX, MNDY, DASH,
Positions increased: RILY, THQQF, IVSBF, CNNE, LYV, DOCU, KARO, V, GOOGL, MELI, FTNT, FOUR, DOCN, RNG, DOCS, CRWD, CURN, MRNA, BLDE, SSNC, ABNB, SWAV, CPNG, BMBL, PANW,
Positions reduced: RILYT, RILYP, SPLK, CSL, PINS, THRY, MORN, LVO, VCSA,
Positions eliminated: EXPI, SCHW, PROSY, MTCH, VMW, CHEK, QDEL,
Flip-flop: META, PYPL

Fixed income: Sold RILYP and RILYT as they rose, did not rebuy on current drop yet. Bought GNL-PA, GNL-PB as their prices dropped.

Sold some META and PYPL and then rebought at lower prices.

Sold remaining VMW on merger. Sold most SPLK on merger announcement.

Sold EXPI, SCHW, PROSY, MTCH, CHEK, QDEL mostly because of uncertain prospects. Reduced CSL, THRY, LVO, VCSA because of uncertain prospects. Reduced PINS and MORN on valuation.

Bought new positions and increased positions based on attractiveness and valuation.

 

Portfolio update - 2023 June 19

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, GOOGL, META, AAPL, RILY
In: 
Out:

Fixed income: 2%
Cash: 3%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 14%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 8%, Stock funds: 4%, Industrial: 0%, Consumer: 3%, Medical/pharma: 2%, Tech: 47%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 2%

New positions: SCHW, CSL,
Positions increased: RILY, THRY, ZS, ABNB, RILYP, RILYT, LMGIF, EXPE, V, NOW, LVO, LYV, KARO, FTNT, FOUR, RNG, TSM, PANW, INTU, SPLK, CRWD, THQQF,
Positions reduced: META, MTCH, VMW,
Positions eliminated: IRBT, COF, ETSY, VMEO, FNKO, WFC-PL, BAC-PL, TRTN-PD, OTCM, ZIP, OPRX, ATVI, PUBM, AYRWF, GNL-PA, GNL-PB, INN-PE, MGNI,
Flip-flop: FRC, FRC-PN, FRC-PJ, WAL, VBNK,

Fixed income: Added to RILYP and RILYT as they dropped, sold a bit of RILYP as it recovered. Sold most of my preferred shares WFC-PL, BAC-PL, TRTN-PD, GNL-PA, GNL-PB. I was not sure if the yields were sufficiently high for risks taken.

Traded some banking stocks: FRC, FRC-PN, FRC-PJ, WAL resulting in some losses. Also traded VBNK and sold COF. Bought and holding SCHW. Added and holding RILY, V, FOUR, 

Bought CSL on valuation.

Added to THRY, ZS, ABNB, LMGIF, EXPE, NOW, LVO, LYV, KARO, FTNT, RNG, TSM, PANW, INTU, SPLK, CRWD, THQQF on valuation and attractive expectations.

Sold some META for position sizing.

Sold VMW on price runup.

Sold MTCH, IRBT, ETSY, VMEO, FNKO, OTCM, ZIP, OPRX, ATVI, PUBM, AYRWF, MGNI mostly because of uncertain prospects. Some of these may have lowish valuations and the sale might not have been the best choice.

Portfolio update - 2023 March 05

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, GOOGL, META, AAPL, RILY
In: 
Out:

Fixed income: 3%
Cash: 3%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 14%, Malone/media: 0%, Banks/financials: 9%, Stock funds: 4%, Industrial: 0%, Consumer: 3%, Medical/pharma: 2%, Tech: 44%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 2%

New positions: ZS, LYV, SWAV,
Positions increased: THRY, PANW, CRWD, GOOGL, DDOG, VRTX, KARO, FTNT, RILY, RILYP, PYPL, EXPE, ABNB,
Positions reduced: META,
Positions eliminated: MCO, APPS, APO, PX, FVRR,
Flip-flop:

Fixed income: Added to RILYP when it dropped due to short seller's report on RILY.

Sold MCO, APPS, APO, PX, FVRR mostly for portfolio cleanup.

Sold a bit of META on the stock runup to $18Xs.

Bought and added stocks that seemed to be trading at attractive prices.

Portfolio update - 2023 January 2

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, GOOGL, META, AAPL, RILY
In: RILY - bought
Out: PSHZF - sold

Fixed income: 2%
Cash: 8%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 15%, Malone/media: 0%, Banks/financials: 8%, Stock funds: 4%, Industrial: 0%, Consumer: 1%, Medical/pharma: 2%, Tech: 41%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 2%

New positions: TREX, SDIIF, RNG, VCSA, INN-E, GNL-B, GNL-A, RILYP, COF, TSM, FTNT, FOUR, CELH,
Positions increased: PX, TTD, GOOGL, ZM, INTU, CRM, VEEV, DOCU, SHOP, MRNA, CURN, DFAU, IWF, META, RILY, ADBE, VMEO, U, MGNI, NOW, SCPPF, KARO, APPS, AYRWF, IVSBF, HLFFF, TEAM, THRY, LRCX, DOCS, PANW, AMD, DDOG, ABNB, AMZN, YELP, CRWD, FNKO, WDAY, ETHE, PUBM, PAGS, EXPE, GBTC, CNSWF, V, SSTWS, VRTX, TDOC,
Positions reduced: COIN, KNBE, COUP, RVPHW, VMW, PINS, ATVI, ETSY, MTCH,
Positions eliminated: XP, ATY, RMD, TWTR, POSH, STNE, PSHZF, MLSPF, IAC, TER, CHGG, OTMOW, HZONWS, WEJOW, SHCRW, KPLTW, BGRYW, OUSTWS, TTWO, 
Flip-flop: FVRR

Fixed income: I invested in several fixed income securities, including INN-E, GNL-A, GNL-B, and RILYP, which had yields of 8-9%.

Merger arbitrage: I had good results with TWTR. I bought and later sold VMW as the prices increased. I bought COUP before the buyout announcement and sold it afterward. I sold my position in KNBE after the buyout announcement. I gave up on ATVI and sold most of my shares. I also bought some IRBT.

Crypto: I added some ETHE and GBTC to my portfolio as the value of cryptocurrency dropped.

I sold some stocks and reduced my positions in others due to uncertainty about future growth and performance.

I initiated tracking positions for TREX and SDIIF.

I bought stocks that I believed were attractively valued. However, many of these stocks continued to decline after I purchased them.

2022 returns: My actively invested accounts had a return of -31% in 2022. This could have been better if I had invested in the SP500 instead. $IWF had a return of approximately -30.5%, so that would not have performed better. Although considering that I had some cash, $IWF probably would still have done better.
$META at -65% and $GOOGL at -40% definitely did not help. These stocks made up a significant portion of my portfolio and contributed to the negative returns. $AAPL at -27% or so, performed somewhat similarly to my portfolio.

My returns overall:
Comparisons with SP500 are approximate, since SP500 calculator does not have December 2022 data yet.
Earliest to date: 8% annual vs ~9.3% SP500
Last 10 year return: 6.92% annual investment accounts, 6.87% active accounts vs ~12.4% SP500
Last 5 year return: 4.62% annual investment accounts, 3.69% active accounts vs ~9% SP500
Last 3 year return: 3.34% annual investment accounts, 0.85% active accounts vs ~8% SP500

Portfolio update - 2022 August 7

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, GOOG, META, PSHZF, AAPL
In:
Out:

Fixed income: 2%
Cash: 8%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 13%, Malone/media: 0%, Banks/financials: 7%, Stock funds: 9%, Industrial: 0%, Consumer: 1%, Medical/pharma: 2%, Tech: 38%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 3%

New positions: DDOG, OPRX, DOCS, PANW, THQQF, SNOW, APO, COUP, ATVI,
Positions increased: NOW, THRY, XP, YELP, RBLX, MELI, CNNE, U, XBI, TTD, CPNG, MTCH, PX, PSHZF, ABNB, SHOP, GOOGL, INTU, DOCU, PUBM, AMZN, ETHE, JTKWY, RILY, KNBE, IWF, KARO
Positions reduced: VMW, ZEN
Positions eliminated: ADCOF, COST, PSTH
Flip-flop: ETSY, COIN, IAC, TWTR, ALGN, META, PINS, STNE

With large price swings, I bought and sold a lot. Not always in the best way. No significant changes in top positions.

Practically no action in the fixed income category. 

Sold PSTH without waiting for SPARs.

Lots of M&A activity. Sold most of positions in VMW and ZEN. Some flip flop with TWTR, mostly not profitable yet. Bought a position in ATVI. ATVI results are not good, so the stock may drop a lot if MSFT acquisition is not approved.

Sold ADCOF on bad results. Sold tiny position in COST.

Flip-flops were mostly in selling direction. Apart from META, I have way smaller positions in ETSY, COIN, IAC, PINS, STNE now. Selling in bear market is likely a mistake though. For example, COIN has now ran up way higher than where I sold it. I bought and then sold ALGN after they reported results.

Practically all purchases were based on attractive prices or adding on price drops. June reports from these companies have been mixed. Some are more attractive now, some are less, some have not reported yet.

THRY seems to be executing well. YELP too. MELI continues high growth. I liked ABNB report. KARO is growing well.

MTCH has some issues with Tinder business unit. I'm not particularly excited about new MTCH CEO, but planning to hold for now. I think they can do well.

Portfolio update - 2022 May 1

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, GOOG, PSHZF, AAPL,
In:
Out:

Fixed income: 6%
Cash: 4%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 15%, Malone/media: 0%, Banks/financials: 7%, Stock funds: 12%, Industrial: 0%, Consumer: 1%, Medical/pharma: 2%, Tech: 38%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 3%

New positions: FNKO, ASML, PX, LRCX
Positions increased: STNE, PINS, VEEV, MELI, COIN, CPNG, FB, DOCU, XBI, AMZN, RBLX, EXPI, GOOGL, RILY, ZM, TER, MRNA, SHOP, PAGS, TDOC, PUBM, CRM, BMBL, PSHZF, HLFFF, OTCM, FVRR, MGNI, THRY, ZIP, CURN, ETSY, MTCH, JTKWY,
Positions reduced: TTWO, MCO, TRRSF, COST, YELP, EXPE, TWTR
Positions eliminated: EAGRF, KD, NWINF, ZNGA, IBM, FICO, PLTK, BABA, BIOX, TCEHY, RDBBY, REGN, CRCT, FFXDF
Flip-flop:

Out of all the stocks growth or "value" (I don't hold many value stocks), the only three stocks that held up so far are BRKB, VRTX and V. Also PSTH, but that's pretty much cash equivalent. Crypto did not do well. Good funds did not do well. Most holding companies apart from BRKB did not do well.

Sold stocks due to lack of growth (RDBBY, CRCT, KD, IBM), not strong conviction (FFXDF, REGN), high valuations (MCO, TRRSF, COST), cleaning up portfolio (EAGRF), and political reasons (BABA, TCEHY). BIOX sold after merger announcement. TWTR sold after buyout announcement.

Out of the buys, GOOGL is probably the highest conviction buy at this time.

STNE needs to climb out of the hole it dug last year.

FB needs to split into two companies... or barring that to refocus on the growth of the non-meta businesses. 

ASML, LRCX, PX are currently small/tracking positions.

Some growth stocks listed as purchases are still expensive and I added mostly small adds at possibly not great prices.  

 

Portfolio update - 2022 January 3

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, GOOG, PSHZF, AAPL,
In:
Out:

Fixed income: 6%
Cash: 6%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Malone/media: 0%, Banks/financials: 6%, Stock funds: 11%, Industrial: 0%, Consumer: 1%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 39%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 4%

New positions: ZEN, TER, ATY, ACHR, BMBL, ZIP, KD, IBM, DOCU
Positions increased: FB, KARO, GOOG, STNE, PINS, PLTK, V, IAC, POSH, PAGS, ZM, FICO, VMW, TWTR, CPNG, XBI, AMZN, VEEV, COIN
Positions reduced: ETSY, RDBBY, CURN, JPM, EXPE
Positions eliminated: ANGI, HMLPRA, MNTV, DIS, MGI, DISCK, VIAC, BKNG, NTES, EXXRF, KKR, WLDBF, LBRDA, EEFT, NTDOY, CBOE, FSPHX, IWO, MITK, IDXX, PWFL, ROP, SABR, QLYS, PETQ, BOX
Flip-flop: ATUS (sold), NWINF (kept), PSFE (sold), ANCTF (sold)

2021 IRR ~15.76%. The "growth" account that smashed 2020 had 2021 IRR of ~1.2%

Lessons from 2021:
- Buying/hodling growth at any price does not work (that's the account with 1.2% return in 2021 )
- Holding cash/cash equivalent SPACs in bull market does not work ( -3% in the account that held mostly SPACs/PSTH + some other stuff )
- AAPL/BRK/GOOGL/FB still worked, so KISS would have worked ( 28% return in account that had majority of money in these companies ).

Somewhat unexpected returns: subpar AMZN, ADSK, LBRDA (sold), MA, V.

BRK beat the index (for a change).

Other positive contributions: BAM, CNSWF, COST (large runup, tiny position), DFS (sold), DPZ (large runup, tiny position, sold), INTU, JPM (sold), MCO, NVDA, OTCM (large runup), TOITF, TRRSF.

International indexes still underperformed hugely - is this the longest international underperformance ever? Similar to value-vs-growth underperformance.

PSHZF midteens performance - somewhat expected - still hodling.

Too many stocks -50% (that's minus 50%) to mention.

My 401(k) which is 40% US indexes, 40% international, 20% bonds returned 16%. So pretty much the same as my active portfolio, but way worse than SP500 since international and bonds/cash underperformed hugely.

Did a large portfolio cleanup at year-end/new-year. Still work in progress. There will be a lot more changes.

Buys: almost everything is a value/valuation add. There's one company that's a tracking position. Can anyone spot it?

Sells: a mix of valuation, low conviction, and too-much-effort-to-keep-track sales. Almost all stocks sold might do well. Might be interesting to track their performance and compare to index or to my remaining portfolio.

Portfolio Update - 2021 September 21

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, GOOG, PSHZF, AAPL,
In:
Out:
 
Fixed income: 7%
Cash: 2%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 11%, Malone/media: 2%, Banks/financials: 5%, Stock funds: 11%, Industrial: 0%, Customer: 2%, Medical/pharma: 2%, Tech: 40%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 4%

Impact investing: 23%

New positions: VIAC, KARO, REGN, ADCOF, LEMLF, MGI, NTDOY, PLTK, MNTV, QDEL
Positions increased: AMD, GOOG, ANCUF, FB, RILY, PINS, ANGI, TTWO, RDBBY, DISCK, PSTH, CNNE, ZNGA, YELP, COIN, QLYS, ABNB, RBLX, BABA, PROSY, EXPE, STNE, VRTX 
Positions reduced: NTES, SABR, TCEHY,
Positions eliminated: HTZZ, MG, DFS, MSPAF,
Flip-flop: HMLPPRA, LEAT

With HMLP facing contract lawsuit and refinancing problems, HMLPPRA dropped and then bounced back. I bought more on drop and then sold on bounce.

Bought a bit more PSTH before the announcement that the SPAC deal plans are essentially dead.

Mostly reduced positions in Chinese companies (NTES, TCEHY). Partially replaced them by buying some PROSY and BABA.

Sold low conviction and not very attractive expected return positions in HTZZ, MG, DFS, MSPAF.

Sold some SABR and replaced with a bit of EXPE.

Bought small tracking positions in KARO, ADCOF, LEMLF, MNTV, QDEL.

Bought NTDOY, PLTK and added to ZNGA, TTWO in gaming area.

Bought VIAC and added to DISCK in media area.

Bought REGN and added to VRTX in pharma/biotech area.

Added to AMD, GOOG, ANCUF, FB, RILY, PINS, ANGI, RDBBY, CNNE, YELP, COIN, QLYS, ABNB, RBLX, STNE. Bought initial position in MGI.

I am planning to increase the percentage of my portfolio that corresponds to "impact" investing, i.e. investing in the companies that I believe contribute to the progress and improvement of our civilization. This is completely subjective evaluation. The change may be slow. I will be looking for the attractive returns even when buying "impact" companies.

Portfolio Update - 2021 July 24

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, GOOG, PSHZF, AAPL,
In:
Out:
 
Fixed income: 7%
Cash: 6%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 11%, Malone/media: 2%, Banks/financials: 5%, Stock funds: 10%, Industrial: 0%, Customer: 1%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 39%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 4%

New positions: MITK, ETHE, KKR, GRUB, EEFT, BOX, CNNE, NWINF, ANCUF, BIOX
Positions increased: AMZN, THRY, TOITF, BACPRL, PSTH, ZNGA, ETSY, RILY, PROSY, SABR, TTWO, ANGI, DISCK, 
Positions reduced: EXPE, MG, DFS, MCO, OTCM
Positions eliminated: GNLPRA/GNLPRB, INNPRE, ICE, SPCX
Flip-flop: TRTNPRC/TRTNPRD

In fixed income area, I sold a lot of preferred's ( GNLPRA/GNLPRB, INNPRE ) and added a bit of BACPRL. The prices have gone up mostly and yields are not very attractive.

I sold/reduced EXPE, DFS, MCO, OTCM, ICE. These are good to great companies that possibly should be kept in the portfolio, but I thought that the projected return was not very attractive.

I sold tracking position in SPCX and reduced MG position.

I bought small positions in MITK, ETHE, KKR, GRUB, EEFT, BOX, BIOX.

I bought medium positions in CNNE, NWINF and ANCUF. All three companies are trading at pretty attractive valuations and may offer reasonable forward return.

Bought PSTH on UMG deal announcement. Will keep it now at close to the trust value.

Added to AMZN. Added to THRY, TOITF, ZNGA, ETSY, RILY, PROSY, SABR, TTWO, ANGI, DISCK at pretty attractive valuations.

 

 

Portfolio Update - 2021 May 31

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, GOOG, PSHZF, AAPL,
In:
Out:
 
Fixed income: 7%
Cash: 7%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Malone/media: 2%, Banks/financials: 5%, Stock funds: 10%, Industrial: 1%, Customer: 1%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 36%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 3%

New positions: IIVI, PAGS, PETQ, PINS, IDXX, QLYS, ETSY, JAMFX, RBLX, ABNB, NOW, POSH, DISCK, LEAT, PUBM, HLFFF
Positions increased: SABR, GOOG, TOITF, WMICX, CPNG, MELI, AMD, VEEV,
Positions reduced: BRKB, MCO, MORN, V, BKNG, EXPE, DFS, OSSIF, RMD, AYRWF, MG, BABA, VMEO
Positions eliminated: NICE, FISV, PMD
Flip-flop: ANGI, EXPI

Sold NICE, FISV and PMD due to reduced return expectations. Sold some BKNG, EXPE, DFS, RMD, AYRWF, MG due to reduced return expectations.

Sold some ANGI as it ran up and then bought back as it dropped.

Sold some BRKB, MCO, MORN, V due to taxable portfolio management reasons. 

Sold some BABA due to increased risks and likely lower growth.

Sold most VMEO after spin off from IAC.

Bought initial EXPI position, but then sized down.

Added SABR on valuation. Added to GOOG, TOITF, CPNG, MELI, AMD, VEEV at OKish valuations.

Bought initial positions in IIVI, PAGS, PETQ, QLYS, POSH, LEAT, HLFFF at somewhat attractive valuations. Bought positions in ETSY, NOW and PUBM. Bought a medium size position in PINS on a drop.

Bought initial position in DISCK to follow through the merger with Time Warner assets.

Bought tracking positions in IDXX, RBLX and ABNB.

 

Portfolio update - April 11, 2021

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, PSHZF, AAPL, GOOG,
In:
Out:
 
Fixed income: 8%
Cash: 8%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 13%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 7%, Stock funds: 9%, Industrial: 1%, Medical/pharma: 2%, Tech: 32%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 3%

New positions:  RDBBY, ZNGA, DPZ, WLDBF, COST, FISV, SABR, PWFL, XBI, CPNG, CRCT
Positions increased: GOOGL, SHOP, VRTX, PSHZF, MELI, BABA, TTWO, MLSPF, V, ETSY
Positions reduced: MG, CHEK, PMD, DFS
Positions eliminated: MACE
Flip-flop: BIOX

I sold and reduced MG, CHEK, PMD, DFS, MACE mostly based on valuation considerations.

Added to GOOGL, VRTX, PSHZF, MELI, BABA, TTWO, MLSPF, V, ETSY at attractive valuations and to SHOP at unattractive valuation.

Bought positions in RDBBY, ZNGA, DPZ, WLDBF, COST, FISV, SABR, PWFL, CPNG, CRCT at so so valuations. Bought a position in XBI to track biotechs into which I don't have expertise to invest directly.

The above writeup misses a lot of SPACs and SPAC warrants which I decided not to discuss. SPACs are mostly held as cash equivalents (but not included in cash percentage above). SPAC warrants are held as long term options that may or might not have much value. In toto recently SPACs and warrants dropped from purchase prices and below $10 tentative cash value.

Portfolio update - 2021 January/February

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, PSHZF, AAPL, GOOG,
In:
Out: EXXRF - sold part of the position
 
Fixed income: 9%
Cash: 13%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 7%, Stock funds: 10%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 0%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 29%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 3%

New positions: IWO, MELI, SSNC, WMICX, AMD, PMD, GBTC, THRY, TCEHY, TOITF, VRTX, RMD
Positions increased: BCSVX, FB, VMW, RILY, CURN, GOOG, SHOP,
Positions reduced: AKREX, JPM, PSTH, PROSY, IAC, ANGI, EXXRF, TWTR, DFS
Positions eliminated: FIGFX, KNOP, INTC, CVS
Flip-flop: BB, CRSR, F

I have not been active on the fixed income side. I have been buying a number of SPACs in the 10.1x-10.3x range and selling above 10.6x. The list of tickers is too long to mention. I have also bought tiny speculative positions in a couple of SPAC warrants. These have fared worse so far than the relatively less risky purchases of SPACs themselves.

In the mutual fund space, I have sold some AKREX since I am not sure if I want to keep the fund after Chuck Akre's semi-retirement. I decided to sell FIGFX due to overlap with my direct holdings and instead to add to BCSVX. I bought a tiny bit of IWO for tracking. I also bought some WMICX since I liked the fund.

I did some buying and selling in the WSB favorite space with BB, CRSR and F. No interesting stories to tell. Clearly my hands are paper and not diamond.

Bought tracking positions in SSNC, AMD and RMD. Although MELI is expensive, I bought a position that is a bit larger than pure tracking. If MELI very high growth rate continues, the stock may still be attractive. It is a big "if" though. Reentered TCEHY while reducing PROSY, since I decided that TCEHY may be more attractive.

I bought some value-and-story stocks: PMD and THRY. 

After Constellation distributed Topicus TOITF shares, I bought some more. 

VRTX shares have been trending down for some time. The valuation is now attractive if the company can maintain 10-15% growth. I initiated a position.

I have added to FB, VMW, RILY, CURN, GOOG at IMO attractive valuations. Added a bit to SHOP tracking position.

Reduced positions in PSTH, IAC, ANGI, TWTR on runup and valuation. Sold some JPM, DFS and EXXRF. JPM and DFS valuations are not high, but expected returns may not be very attractive. EXXRF is still saddled with rather mediocre businesses that will have difficulties achieving superior results.

Sold tracking position in KNOP. Sold INTC on CEO change. Sold CVS on uncertain future outlook.

Portfolio update - 2020 October/November/December

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, PSHZF, AAPL, EXXRF, GOOG,
In:
Out:
 
Fixed income: 9%
Cash: 13%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 7%, Stock funds: 10%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 0%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 30%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 5%

New positions: TTWO, IWF, INTC, MACE, MG, DFAU, DFAE, DFAI, SCPPF, CURN, MSPAF, MELI, RILY, BABA, YELP, XP
Positions increased: INNPRD, TRTNPRC, CBOE, ADSK, ANGI, GOOG, STNE, VMW, CHEK, FB
Positions reduced: DFS, EXPE, BKNG, NTES, JPM, AAPL, OTCM, AYRWF
Positions eliminated: VVNTWS, YY
Flip-flop: IAC, PSTH, INNPRE, CVS

I should post more often. Since this time covered 2.5 months, I have bought and sold a lot. 

On fixed income side I traded INNPRE as the price fluctuated. I added INNPRD and TRTNPRC.

I bought a bunch of IAC and ANGI at lower prices and then sold a bit of IAC as the price ran up on Vimeo spinoff news.

In tech space, I have initiated positions in TTWO (OK price), INTC (cheap if the company manages to not decline), MSPAF (tracking position), MELI (expensive but could grow into the valuation), BABA (cheap if one can trust financials and if Chinese regulators don't hit it very hard), SCPPF (tracking position), YELP (cheap if the company can perform - which it could not for last many years - tracking position). I added to ADSK (wide moat, no longer cheap), VMW (cheap), FB (still OK price), GOOG (still somewhat OK price). I sold some AAPL based on price although it is possibly a mistake. Also reduced EXPE and BKNG on run-up and forward valuation. These could be a mistake if travel recovers faster than expected and more than expected. Reduced some NTES.

I sold YY position after they reported selling their China business to Baidu. There was a short-seller report on YY that raised some legitimate issues though the accusation of wholesale fraud is not totally convincing. 

I bought some "value" stock positions: MG, MACE (tracking position), CURN.

In the financials space, I have bought RILY (possibly cheap, depending on future results), XP (expensive), added to CBOE (low conviction), STNE (very expensive now). I sold some DFS on run-up,  JPM on uncertain future, OTCM on price.

I am still undecided about CVS. I have added some and then sold most. Reduced some AYRWF on run-up.

In SPAC space, I traded PSTH as price fluctuated, selling below the recent highs though. I sold all VVNTWS and FSRWS. I bought and sold a long list of SPAC warrants that I won't list completely. It includes IPOBWS, IPOCWS, THCBW, CFIIW, NGAWS, APXTW, QSWS, LGVWWS, LAZRW, INAQW, STPKWS, BFTWS, GSAHWS, HTOOW, GIKWS, DMWS, TPGYWS, CGROW, FIIIW, SKLZWS, FSRVW, CLAWS. It has been a part of ongoing experiment in speculating in SPAC space (pun intended).

I bought some tracking positions for monitoring in ETFs: IWF and new Dimensional Funds ETFs: DFAU, DFAE, DFAI.

My 2020 returns were in 24-25% range outperforming SP500 for the first time in 9 years. One account concentrated on growth stocks produced 82% return. Maybe that's an indication of a bubble or a top. We'll see.

Portfolio update - 2020 September/October

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, PSHZF, AAPL, EXXRF, GOOG,
In:
Out:
 
Fixed income: 10%
Cash: 13%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 7%, Stock funds: 9%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 0%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 30%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 4%

New positions: GSAHWS, IPOBWS, IPOCWS, TRTNPRC, TRTNPRD, ROP, PSTH, GNLPRA, GNLPRB, WFCPRL, INNPRD
Positions increased: ADSK, ANGI, AMZN, IAC, PSHZF, BKNG, YY
Positions reduced: PROSY, AAPL, TWTR, INNPRE
Positions eliminated: TCEHY
Flip-flop: INS

On the fixed income side, I bought a number of preferred shares TRTNPRC, TRTNPRD, GNLPRA, GNLPRB, WFCPRL, INNPRD. I sold some INNPRE as price rose.

In the SPAC area, I bought small positions in a number of warrants GSAHWS, IPOBWS, IPOCWS and some PSTH.

I bought a tiny tracking position in ROP.

I added to ADSK, ANGI, AMZN, IAC, PSHZF, BKNG, YY at (somewhat) attractive prices.

I sold TCEHY for a mix of valuation and political reasons. I reduced PROSY and TWTR to raise cash and because of weak conviction in their future business and stock returns. I also sold a bit of AAPL because of the oversized position and valuation concerns, although on further analysis, I think that AAPL may provide 6-9% annual return in coming years. 

In general, opportunities are few, most attractive (growing and moaty) businesses trade at high valuations, there are a number of risks for both economy and stock market. Probably I should hold even more cash and fixed income than I do now.

Portfolio update - 2020 July/August

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: BRKB, FB, PSHZF, AAPL, EXXRF, GOOG,
In:
Out:
 
Fixed income: 9%
Cash: 15%

Sectors (kinda): Insurance (BRK): 12%, Malone/media: 1%, Banks/financials: 7%, Stock funds: 8%, Cars: 0%, Oil: 0%, Medical/pharma: 1%, Tech: 30%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories): 4%

New positions: ADBE, HMLPPRA, INNPRE, ADSK, SPAQWS, CBOE, INTC, FICO, ANGI, MNRPRC
Positions increased: VMW, PSHZF, AMZN, IAC, BACPRL, MLSPF
Positions reduced: MTCH, TRRSF, AAPL, TCEHY
Positions eliminated: AMSSY, GPOR, GPOR bond, NKLAW
Flip-flop:

In fixed income, sold GPOR bond (and associated tracking stock position) on Q2 results and "going concern" opinion.
Bought a number of preferreds: HMLPPRA, INNPRE, MNRPRC, BACPRL

Sold NKLAW remainder on upcoming warrant conversion.
Sold AMSSY - it was a low conviction position and I decided that I like cash/other positions more.
Reduced MTCH, TRRSF, AAPL, TCEHY on valuation at prices lower than they are currently. All of these are good/great companies, so I possibly should have held.

Added to VMW, PSHZF, IAC, MLSPF at OK to attractive prices.
Added to AMZN at somewhat attractive price considering current results and continued growth.
Bought tracking positions in ADBE, ADSK, FICO.
Bought some INTC, CBOE, and ANGI at OK to attractive prices. All of these are somewhat low conviction positions.
Bought tiny completely speculative position in SPAQWS.

Market and stock prices are still (very) high and I probably should hold even more cash and fixed income.