My top (>2%) positions in no particular
order: FRFHF, JPM, LMCA, BRKB, BAC, STRZA, SFY bonds, TESB.BE, FRMO,
MKL, LBTYA/K
In: None
Out: DRAGF - sold
Fixed income: ~12%
Cash: ~19%
Sectors (kinda):
Insurance
(including BRKB and FRFHF): 26%, Malone/media: 12%, Banks: 6%, Oil
10%, Tech 2%, Various owner-operators (not included in other
categories) 12%
New positions: SFTBY
Positions increased: NOV, IBM, GDWN.L, DNR, PRDGF
Positions reduced: AGIIL, DRAGF, MBNC
Positions eliminated: BBX, BAMXY, PFHO
Flip-flop:
No exciting stock related news this month. All quiet before the storm?
I went to DJCO annual meeting to see Charlie Munger talk. It was somewhat interesting. He is very sharp for 91 year old.
Sold some AGIIL. Bonds and prefs - not counting oil-related ones - are expensive. Very few worthwhile holds.
In stocks I sold:
BBX
- tender offer for some shares at $20. I think the stock is possibly
still undervalued, but I am not very confident in the management. I kept
some BFCF.
BAMXY - CEO change. It looks like competitive wars are
going to heat up, I am not sure even BAMXY is safe. I'll watch from
sidelines for now.
PFHO - Reported upcoming losses of big customers.
Stock dropped, but it's not clear that it is discounting all the bad
news. Sold my remaining stub.
MBNC - Sold some on pop to $1.15.
DRAGF
- parent company offered to buy DRAGF. Sold some on the news pop. There
are other oil companies that might be more attractive. I still hold
some.
Bought more NOV, DNR in oil area. Added some GDWN.L, which
continues to drop due to oil/energy investment reduction in UK. Added
some IBM and PRDGF.
Established new position in SFTBY. Softbank
is well regarded company currently trading pretty cheaply. BABA stock
price has dropped and S stock is not doing well either. Both of these
weigh on SFTBY. I decided that SFTBY might be a good long term
investment, so I bought some.
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Portfolio overview - February 2015
My top (>2%) positions in no particular
order: FRFHF, JPM, LMCA, BRKB, BAC, STRZA, SFY bonds, TESB.BE, DRAGF,
FRMO, MKL, LBTYA/K
In: BAC - bought more, STRZA - price increase, SFY bonds - price increase, TESB.BE - price increase, LBTYA/K - bought more
Out: BKLN - sold, MHNC - sold
Fixed income: ~13%
Cash: ~17%
Sectors (kinda):
Insurance (including BRKB and FRFHF): 25%, Malone/media: 11%, Banks: 6%, Cars and parts: 1%, Oil 11%, Tech 2%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories) 10%
New positions: FMCKP, FNMAG, PRDGF, HAL, IBM
Positions increased: GDWN.L, AGIIL, FRFHF, LBTYA, LBRDA, BAC, FRMO
Positions reduced: MHNC
Positions eliminated: BKLN, VRSN
Flip-flop:
This month there was a lot of change in my top positions partially through price changes, partially through purchases. There were also a lot of changes in fixed income part of portfolio.
Fixed income: sold BKLN, sold MHNC - overpriced based on yield-to-possible-call. Bought more AGIIL - one of the few remaining somewhat attractive prefs.
I sold VRSN position - not cheap enough to hold.
On the buy side, I bought some lottery tickets:
FMCKP, FNMAG - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac prefs that might be worth zero if status quo continues. I do not count these as fixed income.
PRDGF - startup investment vehicle of CoBF founder, currently losing money and overpriced based on assets.
I decided to buy some IBM after continuing Buffett support and reviewing their 2014 10K.
I bought some HAL, which seems to be reasonably attractive and quality company.
I added GDWN.L, FRFHF, LBTYA, LBRDA, BAC, FRMO at rather mediocre prices. It's possible that I should have waited instead.
In: BAC - bought more, STRZA - price increase, SFY bonds - price increase, TESB.BE - price increase, LBTYA/K - bought more
Out: BKLN - sold, MHNC - sold
Fixed income: ~13%
Cash: ~17%
Sectors (kinda):
Insurance (including BRKB and FRFHF): 25%, Malone/media: 11%, Banks: 6%, Cars and parts: 1%, Oil 11%, Tech 2%, Various owner-operators (not included in other categories) 10%
New positions: FMCKP, FNMAG, PRDGF, HAL, IBM
Positions increased: GDWN.L, AGIIL, FRFHF, LBTYA, LBRDA, BAC, FRMO
Positions reduced: MHNC
Positions eliminated: BKLN, VRSN
Flip-flop:
This month there was a lot of change in my top positions partially through price changes, partially through purchases. There were also a lot of changes in fixed income part of portfolio.
Fixed income: sold BKLN, sold MHNC - overpriced based on yield-to-possible-call. Bought more AGIIL - one of the few remaining somewhat attractive prefs.
I sold VRSN position - not cheap enough to hold.
On the buy side, I bought some lottery tickets:
FMCKP, FNMAG - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac prefs that might be worth zero if status quo continues. I do not count these as fixed income.
PRDGF - startup investment vehicle of CoBF founder, currently losing money and overpriced based on assets.
I decided to buy some IBM after continuing Buffett support and reviewing their 2014 10K.
I bought some HAL, which seems to be reasonably attractive and quality company.
I added GDWN.L, FRFHF, LBTYA, LBRDA, BAC, FRMO at rather mediocre prices. It's possible that I should have waited instead.
Friday, February 6, 2015
Portfolio overview - January 2015
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: FRFHF, JPM, LMCA, MHNC, BRKB, BKLN, DRAGF, FRMO, MKL.
In: FRMO
Out: SPND - price drop
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~20%
Sectors (kinda):
Insurance (including BRKB and FRFHF): 23%, Malone/media: 10%, Banks: 5%, Cars and parts: 1%, Oil 10%, Tech 3%, Various owner-operators 8%
New positions: FOXA
Positions increased: FRFHF, FRMO, PWE, GTE, SFY bonds, DNR, PCP, DISH, DISCA, BAC
Positions reduced: AGCO
Positions eliminated: CVX, MSFT
Flip-flop:
I have added to FRFHF and FRMO positions.
Bought more oil investments PWE, GTE, SFY bonds, DNR
Added a bit to PCP on the day of big drop
Added a bit to BAC as it hit 15.X range.
Added a bit more DISH, DISCA and bought a small position in FOXA.
Sold CVX and MSFT. Sold some AGCO.
In: FRMO
Out: SPND - price drop
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~20%
Sectors (kinda):
Insurance (including BRKB and FRFHF): 23%, Malone/media: 10%, Banks: 5%, Cars and parts: 1%, Oil 10%, Tech 3%, Various owner-operators 8%
New positions: FOXA
Positions increased: FRFHF, FRMO, PWE, GTE, SFY bonds, DNR, PCP, DISH, DISCA, BAC
Positions reduced: AGCO
Positions eliminated: CVX, MSFT
Flip-flop:
I have added to FRFHF and FRMO positions.
Bought more oil investments PWE, GTE, SFY bonds, DNR
Added a bit to PCP on the day of big drop
Added a bit to BAC as it hit 15.X range.
Added a bit more DISH, DISCA and bought a small position in FOXA.
Sold CVX and MSFT. Sold some AGCO.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Portfolio overview - December 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: FRFHF, JPM, LMCA, MHNC, SPND, BKLN, MKL, DRAGF, BRKB.
In:
Out: MGDDY, WDC, CF, GLW, AXS, RE - sold
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~28%
Sectors (kinda):
Insurance (including BRKB and FRFHF): 20%, Malone/media: 10%, Banks: 6%, Cars and parts: 1%, Oil 9%, Agri 1%, Tech 3%
New positions: GDWN.L, KRSL, SFY bonds, BFCF, BBX, ISIG, DNR, PWE
Positions increased: GTE, TESB.BE, BRKB, FRFHF
Positions reduced: PGN, BKLN, MSFT
Positions eliminated: STX, MDT, DVDCY, HYH, ANTM, CF, DNB, DE, AXS, EBAY, GLW, MGDDY, RGA, SMTUF, WDC, WU, TPCA, RGA, OVLY, GS, FMBL, 7399:JP, RE, BBBY
Flip-flop: TLM
Note that some trades were made before my decision to cut active investing.
My current plan is to put most of the money into FRFHF. Since I can't stand concentrated portfolio, there will be "forever" positions in some other stocks, probably BRKB, perhaps some Malone stocks. This is work in progress.
I will keep oil stock positions and may even buy more if oil continues to drop. I believe that some of these positions may double or more in the future. Some may go to zero though.
Going to my buys/sells:
Oil: sold some PGN since it may face default and bankruptcy. Bought GTE, PWE, DNR stocks and SFY bonds. Flip flopped TLM for one day gain.
Sold - pretty much everything in "positions eliminated" category is somewhat attractive, feel free to consider them as long ideas. :) MSFT leftover is in taxable account and is waiting until it hits long-term taxable point.
Bought:
GDWN.L - family operated UK firm with good earnings history. Somewhat cheap, but energy industry exposed.
KRSL - activist investor and unhappy director. Company tried to pay off with $3 divvie. The story might not be finished, but less attractive here.
BFCF/BBX - sum-of-parts investment presented on SI and other places couple times.
ISIG - Mr. Big from BH retaliated against activist investors trying to proxy fight BH by buying positions in companies where these investors held substantial positions. So now ISIG has two activist investors in it - bring the popcorn!
In:
Out: MGDDY, WDC, CF, GLW, AXS, RE - sold
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~28%
Sectors (kinda):
Insurance (including BRKB and FRFHF): 20%, Malone/media: 10%, Banks: 6%, Cars and parts: 1%, Oil 9%, Agri 1%, Tech 3%
New positions: GDWN.L, KRSL, SFY bonds, BFCF, BBX, ISIG, DNR, PWE
Positions increased: GTE, TESB.BE, BRKB, FRFHF
Positions reduced: PGN, BKLN, MSFT
Positions eliminated: STX, MDT, DVDCY, HYH, ANTM, CF, DNB, DE, AXS, EBAY, GLW, MGDDY, RGA, SMTUF, WDC, WU, TPCA, RGA, OVLY, GS, FMBL, 7399:JP, RE, BBBY
Flip-flop: TLM
Note that some trades were made before my decision to cut active investing.
My current plan is to put most of the money into FRFHF. Since I can't stand concentrated portfolio, there will be "forever" positions in some other stocks, probably BRKB, perhaps some Malone stocks. This is work in progress.
I will keep oil stock positions and may even buy more if oil continues to drop. I believe that some of these positions may double or more in the future. Some may go to zero though.
Going to my buys/sells:
Oil: sold some PGN since it may face default and bankruptcy. Bought GTE, PWE, DNR stocks and SFY bonds. Flip flopped TLM for one day gain.
Sold - pretty much everything in "positions eliminated" category is somewhat attractive, feel free to consider them as long ideas. :) MSFT leftover is in taxable account and is waiting until it hits long-term taxable point.
Bought:
GDWN.L - family operated UK firm with good earnings history. Somewhat cheap, but energy industry exposed.
KRSL - activist investor and unhappy director. Company tried to pay off with $3 divvie. The story might not be finished, but less attractive here.
BFCF/BBX - sum-of-parts investment presented on SI and other places couple times.
ISIG - Mr. Big from BH retaliated against activist investors trying to proxy fight BH by buying positions in companies where these investors held substantial positions. So now ISIG has two activist investors in it - bring the popcorn!
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Preliminary 2014 Investment Results
Results are
preliminary, since Quicken has not updated some of the 12/31 trades and
distributions. These should not be large enough to affect much. Also
Fidelity does not have their calculation of yearly results yet and won't
have them for couple weeks at least.
Other caveats: rates are from Quicken/IRR which I still believe is buggy/not reliable. Couple positions are wide spread micro caps that trade on appointment, so their prices are sometimes misprinted and therefore misaccounted. Couple positions are foreign stocks that may have incorrect final prices. Some results include 401(k) accounts where I cannot invest into my selection of stocks and ESPP accounts where return accounting by Quicken is suspect. So reader beware.
Executive summary: 8.7% return which underperformed market. I am selling my investment portfolios and winding down active investing.
Longer version: Total IRR across all accounts is 8.05%. After removing ESPP and 401(k) accounts, the return is 8.7%. Both of these undeperformed market a lot (benchmarking against SP500 13.7% return). These returns are even worse considering that BRK stock return was 28% and Fairfax return was 31%. Both of these were positions in my portfolios.
Even considering ~16% cash position and ~16% fixed income position, the results are bad. The fact that other active managers did not do well this year is of little solace.
As an aside 401(k) portfolios underperformed SP500 because of: 30%+ bond fund allocation, 30%+ international allocation (VTIAX and FDIKX are both negative for year) and some small cap allocation.
So my plan is to liquidate my investing portfolios in orderly fashion and convert to mostly passive investing. I have some concern that funds that I passively allocated performed worse than my active investments last year. However, there are two solutions to this: 1. Passively invest in BRK/FRFHF/etc. mix. 2. Longer term the non-ideal allocation might even out.
Other caveats: rates are from Quicken/IRR which I still believe is buggy/not reliable. Couple positions are wide spread micro caps that trade on appointment, so their prices are sometimes misprinted and therefore misaccounted. Couple positions are foreign stocks that may have incorrect final prices. Some results include 401(k) accounts where I cannot invest into my selection of stocks and ESPP accounts where return accounting by Quicken is suspect. So reader beware.
Executive summary: 8.7% return which underperformed market. I am selling my investment portfolios and winding down active investing.
Longer version: Total IRR across all accounts is 8.05%. After removing ESPP and 401(k) accounts, the return is 8.7%. Both of these undeperformed market a lot (benchmarking against SP500 13.7% return). These returns are even worse considering that BRK stock return was 28% and Fairfax return was 31%. Both of these were positions in my portfolios.
Even considering ~16% cash position and ~16% fixed income position, the results are bad. The fact that other active managers did not do well this year is of little solace.
As an aside 401(k) portfolios underperformed SP500 because of: 30%+ bond fund allocation, 30%+ international allocation (VTIAX and FDIKX are both negative for year) and some small cap allocation.
So my plan is to liquidate my investing portfolios in orderly fashion and convert to mostly passive investing. I have some concern that funds that I passively allocated performed worse than my active investments last year. However, there are two solutions to this: 1. Passively invest in BRK/FRFHF/etc. mix. 2. Longer term the non-ideal allocation might even out.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Portfolio overview - November 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular
order: JPM, MGDDY, LMCA, WDC, MHNC, SPND, BKLN, CF, FRFHF, GLW, AXS, RE,
MKL, DRAGF, BRKB.
In: FRFHF - stock runup, AXS - runup, RE - runup
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~18%
Sectors (kinda):
Insurance: 14%, Malone/media: 9%, Banks: 9%, Cars and parts: 5%, Oil 7%, Agri 3%, Tech 8%
New positions: HYH, PCP, FRMO, APA, GTE
Positions increased: PGN, BAC, LMCA, VRSN, LBRDA, LBTYA, MBNC, BH, STRZA
Positions reduced: DE, MDT, STX, MSFT
Positions eliminated: EVC, RYAM, ASBRF, INGR, BASFY, HY, FCX, JOY
Flip-flop:
After most year of boring market, finally things are happening. :) Said the speculator while falling outside the window of the 50th floor. ;)
If market was overpriced before, now it is at least splitting into two parts: the still overpriced part and the energy companies. :) As oil continues to plummet there are already a number of reasonable companies trading below 2009 prices. This is what I call attractive. I am likely too early as I was in 2008, but I only have 7% portfolio in oil. By the time oil is at $35 - let's hope it gets there - I expect to have at least 20+% in oil cos. I doubt it will get there though.
I did some portfolio cleanup. Sold EVC - too tough to value for me, I prefer Malone cos; RYAM - no trust in CEO who is likely responsible for RYN's overreporting; ASBRF - expensive; INGR - low conviction and overcapacity risk; BASFY - expensive and Russian oil risk; HY - not cheap enough; FCX - I prefer oil-only companies; JOY - possibly cheap but low conviction as oil drops.
Reduced positions in DE - I expect a drop in 2015 based on bad results, so far market ignores this, but I am not sure it will ignore it all year, MDT - expensive, STX - not cheap enough, MSFT - donated appreciated shares to charity.
On the buying side, there are couple themes:
Bought more Malone companies: LMCA, LBRDA, LBTYA, STRZA (after the huge drop on Friday).
Bought oil companies: PGN, APA, GTE
After reviewing Buffett lieutenant portfolios, added a bit more VRSN and bought small position in PCP
Bought a bit more MBNC.
Bought BH as the sum-of-parts investment - and to vote against Mr. Big at the annual meeting. :)
Bought exploratory position in HYH - not cheap I think though.
Bought some FRMO for education.
In: FRFHF - stock runup, AXS - runup, RE - runup
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~18%
Sectors (kinda):
Insurance: 14%, Malone/media: 9%, Banks: 9%, Cars and parts: 5%, Oil 7%, Agri 3%, Tech 8%
New positions: HYH, PCP, FRMO, APA, GTE
Positions increased: PGN, BAC, LMCA, VRSN, LBRDA, LBTYA, MBNC, BH, STRZA
Positions reduced: DE, MDT, STX, MSFT
Positions eliminated: EVC, RYAM, ASBRF, INGR, BASFY, HY, FCX, JOY
Flip-flop:
After most year of boring market, finally things are happening. :) Said the speculator while falling outside the window of the 50th floor. ;)
If market was overpriced before, now it is at least splitting into two parts: the still overpriced part and the energy companies. :) As oil continues to plummet there are already a number of reasonable companies trading below 2009 prices. This is what I call attractive. I am likely too early as I was in 2008, but I only have 7% portfolio in oil. By the time oil is at $35 - let's hope it gets there - I expect to have at least 20+% in oil cos. I doubt it will get there though.
I did some portfolio cleanup. Sold EVC - too tough to value for me, I prefer Malone cos; RYAM - no trust in CEO who is likely responsible for RYN's overreporting; ASBRF - expensive; INGR - low conviction and overcapacity risk; BASFY - expensive and Russian oil risk; HY - not cheap enough; FCX - I prefer oil-only companies; JOY - possibly cheap but low conviction as oil drops.
Reduced positions in DE - I expect a drop in 2015 based on bad results, so far market ignores this, but I am not sure it will ignore it all year, MDT - expensive, STX - not cheap enough, MSFT - donated appreciated shares to charity.
On the buying side, there are couple themes:
Bought more Malone companies: LMCA, LBRDA, LBTYA, STRZA (after the huge drop on Friday).
Bought oil companies: PGN, APA, GTE
After reviewing Buffett lieutenant portfolios, added a bit more VRSN and bought small position in PCP
Bought a bit more MBNC.
Bought BH as the sum-of-parts investment - and to vote against Mr. Big at the annual meeting. :)
Bought exploratory position in HYH - not cheap I think though.
Bought some FRMO for education.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Portfolio overview - October 2014
My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: JPM, MGDDY, MHNC, SPND, LMCA, WDC, BKLN, CF, GLW, MKL, DRAGF, BRKB.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~19%
New positions: EVC, DVDCY
Positions increased: SPND, PGN, TPRE, DISCA
Positions reduced: INGR, MBNC, DE
Positions eliminated: AITPF, BK, TDF, CMI, EMC
Flip-flop:
With market volatility, my portfolio also saw some activity. I can't say the activity was very positive though. Most of the purchases and sales continue to be small sum thrashing around. All this while trying to find some interesting place to put the money in or a position to remove the money from.
Exploratory new positions in EVC and DVDCY - neither stock is cheap.
Bought more SPND and PGN as oil continues to flounder. Bought some TPRE as valuation is somewhat attractive. Bought some DISCA on continued decline.
Sold remaining AITPF on valuation. Sold CMI on valuation. Sold TDF after holding for a long time and losing my belief in this fund and its manager. Sold BK - my lower conviction bank holding. Sold EMC - my low conviction tech holding.
Sold some INGR and DE - low conviction, continued headwinds. Sold some MBNC - possibly mistake on this microcap.
Overall, there are positions in my portfolio that I like, but there's a lot of stuff that I am unsure about. I might do some house cleaning soon. We'll see.
The market is high and there are very few attractive stocks. I continue to hold quite a bit of cash and fixed income and continue to underperform SP500.
In:
Out:
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~19%
New positions: EVC, DVDCY
Positions increased: SPND, PGN, TPRE, DISCA
Positions reduced: INGR, MBNC, DE
Positions eliminated: AITPF, BK, TDF, CMI, EMC
Flip-flop:
With market volatility, my portfolio also saw some activity. I can't say the activity was very positive though. Most of the purchases and sales continue to be small sum thrashing around. All this while trying to find some interesting place to put the money in or a position to remove the money from.
Exploratory new positions in EVC and DVDCY - neither stock is cheap.
Bought more SPND and PGN as oil continues to flounder. Bought some TPRE as valuation is somewhat attractive. Bought some DISCA on continued decline.
Sold remaining AITPF on valuation. Sold CMI on valuation. Sold TDF after holding for a long time and losing my belief in this fund and its manager. Sold BK - my lower conviction bank holding. Sold EMC - my low conviction tech holding.
Sold some INGR and DE - low conviction, continued headwinds. Sold some MBNC - possibly mistake on this microcap.
Overall, there are positions in my portfolio that I like, but there's a lot of stuff that I am unsure about. I might do some house cleaning soon. We'll see.
The market is high and there are very few attractive stocks. I continue to hold quite a bit of cash and fixed income and continue to underperform SP500.
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